DISCK Price Action

Nice! Since my last blog post, DISCK has taken off. It's up 11.3% to $25.94! Boy it sure does feel good to be right! I should buy some more and get in on this while I still can!

Wrong on both accounts. While my brain immediately jumps there and I get all these feel good endorphins flowing because "I'm right", this price action is bad news. First, my target price for DISCK is $18. That's the level where I would feel comfortable risking capital. Now the stock is just more expensive, making everything a bigger risk. The upside is now 52% and the downside is 57%, where five days ago it was 68% and 50%.

Let's circle back to being right. There was nothing in my thesis about the stock seeing an 11.3% gain in five days. So am I right? No, my thesis was based on seeing $6b in net income in 2023. If that happens, then I'll let myself smile. If the stock goes up 200%, which is more than anticipated, but earnings are only $2b in 2023, I was still wrong, just a little lucky.

Lastly, the average stock fluctuates about 50% a year. Attributing an 11% movement to any insight on my part is just not reasonable, even if my mind likes to think I'm awesome. ?